China's 2023 steel exports seen reaching 6-year high: traders

In November, China's finished steel exports rebounded to the fourth highest so far in 2023 at 8.005 million mt, up 0.3% on the month and 43.2% on the year, China Customs data showed Dec. 7.Over January-November, steel exports increased 35.6%, or 21.7 million mt, on the year to 82.658 million mt.

Based on data from the China Iron and Steel Association and National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output over January-November is likely to reach 951 million mt, up 16 million mt on the year.Over 2018-2023, China bought about 242 million mt/year of brand-new crude steel capacity on stream, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights calculations based on information gathered from market sources and company announcements.

According to some trading and mill sources, government-mandated steel output cuts for decarbonization may not be strictly implemented in 2024 as well, as ensuring decent economic growth would still be the government's top priority.

In November, China's finished steel imports reached 614,000 mt, the fourth lowest so far in 2023, down 8.1% from October and 18.4% on the year, customs data showed.

Over January-November, finished steel imports fell 29.2% on the year to 6.98 million mt.

As a result, China's net finished steel exports in the first 11 months of 2023 increased 48.1%, or 24.58 million mt, on the year, to 75.678 million mt.